244 lines
6.4 KiB
JSON
244 lines
6.4 KiB
JSON
{
|
|
"_comment": "宏观逻辑矩阵 - 定义宏观因子对各 ETF 板块的基础理论影响值",
|
|
"_version": "1.0.0",
|
|
"_last_updated": "2025-12-30",
|
|
"_scoring_rules": {
|
|
"range": "影响值范围: -10 (极度负面) 到 +10 (极度正面)",
|
|
"neutral": "0 表示无明显影响",
|
|
"interpretation": "数值越大表示正面影响越强，数值越小表示负面影响越强"
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
"macro_factors": {
|
|
"rate_cut": {
|
|
"description": "降准降息 - 货币宽松政策",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": 8,
|
|
"ai_etf": 8,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": 7,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": 7,
|
|
"solar_etf": 6,
|
|
"pharma_etf": 5,
|
|
"consumer_etf": 7,
|
|
"bank_etf": -5,
|
|
"insurance_etf": -4,
|
|
"broker_etf": 6,
|
|
"realestate_etf": 9,
|
|
"military_etf": 4,
|
|
"metal_etf": 5,
|
|
"coal_etf": 2
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"rate_hike": {
|
|
"description": "加息收紧 - 货币紧缩政策",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": -7,
|
|
"ai_etf": -7,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": -6,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": -6,
|
|
"solar_etf": -5,
|
|
"pharma_etf": -3,
|
|
"consumer_etf": -6,
|
|
"bank_etf": 5,
|
|
"insurance_etf": 4,
|
|
"broker_etf": -4,
|
|
"realestate_etf": -9,
|
|
"military_etf": -2,
|
|
"metal_etf": -4,
|
|
"coal_etf": -1
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"currency_depreciation": {
|
|
"description": "人民币贬值 - 有利出口型企业",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": 3,
|
|
"ai_etf": 1,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": 2,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": 5,
|
|
"solar_etf": 6,
|
|
"pharma_etf": 2,
|
|
"consumer_etf": -3,
|
|
"bank_etf": -2,
|
|
"insurance_etf": -1,
|
|
"broker_etf": -1,
|
|
"realestate_etf": -4,
|
|
"military_etf": 3,
|
|
"metal_etf": 4,
|
|
"coal_etf": 1
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"currency_appreciation": {
|
|
"description": "人民币升值 - 有利进口型企业",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": -2,
|
|
"ai_etf": -1,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": -1,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": -4,
|
|
"solar_etf": -5,
|
|
"pharma_etf": -1,
|
|
"consumer_etf": 4,
|
|
"bank_etf": 3,
|
|
"insurance_etf": 2,
|
|
"broker_etf": 2,
|
|
"realestate_etf": 5,
|
|
"military_etf": -2,
|
|
"metal_etf": -3,
|
|
"coal_etf": -1
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"fiscal_stimulus": {
|
|
"description": "财政刺激政策 - 基建、消费刺激",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": 6,
|
|
"ai_etf": 7,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": 6,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": 8,
|
|
"solar_etf": 7,
|
|
"pharma_etf": 4,
|
|
"consumer_etf": 9,
|
|
"bank_etf": 5,
|
|
"insurance_etf": 4,
|
|
"broker_etf": 7,
|
|
"realestate_etf": 8,
|
|
"military_etf": 6,
|
|
"metal_etf": 8,
|
|
"coal_etf": 6
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"regulation_tightening": {
|
|
"description": "监管收紧 - 行业整顿",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": -6,
|
|
"ai_etf": -4,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": -3,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": -4,
|
|
"solar_etf": -3,
|
|
"pharma_etf": -7,
|
|
"consumer_etf": -5,
|
|
"bank_etf": -2,
|
|
"insurance_etf": -2,
|
|
"broker_etf": -5,
|
|
"realestate_etf": -8,
|
|
"military_etf": -1,
|
|
"metal_etf": -2,
|
|
"coal_etf": -3
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"export_strong": {
|
|
"description": "出口数据强劲",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": 5,
|
|
"ai_etf": 3,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": 4,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": 7,
|
|
"solar_etf": 8,
|
|
"pharma_etf": 3,
|
|
"consumer_etf": 2,
|
|
"bank_etf": 3,
|
|
"insurance_etf": 2,
|
|
"broker_etf": 4,
|
|
"realestate_etf": 1,
|
|
"military_etf": 4,
|
|
"metal_etf": 6,
|
|
"coal_etf": 3
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"pmi_expansion": {
|
|
"description": "PMI 扩张 (>50) - 制造业景气",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": 7,
|
|
"ai_etf": 6,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": 7,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": 8,
|
|
"solar_etf": 7,
|
|
"pharma_etf": 4,
|
|
"consumer_etf": 6,
|
|
"bank_etf": 5,
|
|
"insurance_etf": 4,
|
|
"broker_etf": 6,
|
|
"realestate_etf": 4,
|
|
"military_etf": 6,
|
|
"metal_etf": 8,
|
|
"coal_etf": 7
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"oil_price_surge": {
|
|
"description": "原油价格大涨",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": -3,
|
|
"ai_etf": -2,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": -2,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": 5,
|
|
"solar_etf": 6,
|
|
"pharma_etf": -1,
|
|
"consumer_etf": -4,
|
|
"bank_etf": -1,
|
|
"insurance_etf": -1,
|
|
"broker_etf": 0,
|
|
"realestate_etf": -3,
|
|
"military_etf": -1,
|
|
"metal_etf": 3,
|
|
"coal_etf": 8
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
"us_tech_weakness": {
|
|
"description": "美国科技股大跌",
|
|
"impact": {
|
|
"tech_etf": -6,
|
|
"ai_etf": -7,
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": -8,
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": -4,
|
|
"solar_etf": -3,
|
|
"pharma_etf": -2,
|
|
"consumer_etf": -3,
|
|
"bank_etf": 2,
|
|
"insurance_etf": 1,
|
|
"broker_etf": -2,
|
|
"realestate_etf": 1,
|
|
"military_etf": 0,
|
|
"metal_etf": 0,
|
|
"coal_etf": 1
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
"etf_mapping": {
|
|
"tech_etf": ["515980", "159813"],
|
|
"ai_etf": ["515980", "159813"],
|
|
"semiconductor_etf": ["512480", "159995"],
|
|
"new_energy_vehicle_etf": ["515030", "159806"],
|
|
"solar_etf": ["515790", "159857"],
|
|
"pharma_etf": ["512010", "159938"],
|
|
"consumer_etf": ["159928", "510630"],
|
|
"bank_etf": ["510230"],
|
|
"insurance_etf": ["512880"],
|
|
"broker_etf": ["512000"],
|
|
"realestate_etf": ["512200", "159707"],
|
|
"military_etf": ["512660", "512810"],
|
|
"metal_etf": ["512400", "159881"],
|
|
"coal_etf": ["515220", "159678"]
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
"composite_scenarios": {
|
|
"bull_market_start": {
|
|
"description": "牛市启动期 - 货币宽松 + 政策利好",
|
|
"factors": ["rate_cut", "fiscal_stimulus"],
|
|
"multiplier": 1.2
|
|
},
|
|
"bear_market_bottom": {
|
|
"description": "熊市底部 - 政策转向前",
|
|
"factors": ["rate_hike", "regulation_tightening"],
|
|
"multiplier": 0.8
|
|
},
|
|
"economic_recovery": {
|
|
"description": "经济复苏期",
|
|
"factors": ["pmi_expansion", "export_strong", "fiscal_stimulus"],
|
|
"multiplier": 1.15
|
|
},
|
|
"risk_off": {
|
|
"description": "风险规避模式",
|
|
"factors": ["us_tech_weakness", "currency_depreciation"],
|
|
"multiplier": 0.9
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|